Donald Trump, whose military has been in Afghanistan for 18 years and in Iraq for 16, should know this. And so should President Erdogan of Turkey, whose incursion into Syria, accompanied as it is by well publicised atrocities. Turkey has had its fair share of atrocities to deal with on its own soil in recent years. If Erdogan thinks that his action in Syria will make Turkey safer from future attacks, he is surely deluded. He will also have to deal with attacks on his troops in Syria well after he has declared victory.
Has he not learned from the British in Palestine, the French and Americans in Vietnam and the Russians in Afghanistan, as well as his “ally” the United States? Clearly not. And then there are the consequences for the entire region of a resurgent ISIS.
Most wars start through miscalculations – either over-confidence by the attacking party or complacency by the defenders. And they end messily, with the human repercussions often lasting for as long as the wars themselves, if not longer. Think of Europe after the two world wars, and Iraq after Saddam’s three catastrophic wars. As for Syria, it could take a generation for peace and stability to return.
Leaving aside the moral dimension, Erdogan’s war is plain reckless, and will haunt his people long after he has left office. Those who could stop it – most notably Trump and Putin – are declining to do so, for reasons of perceived national interest. In Trump’s case, the interest may also be personal.
Shame on them. And don’t be surprised if the repercussions spill over on to American and Russian soil.